Students, faculty, researchers, and engineers from fire safety programs around the world are invited to join a competition to predict the burning behavior of Douglas-Fir Christmas Trees. The highest individual and highest group scores—i.e., the average scores of all submissions from a single research team or program (at least 3 team members)—will be announced to all competition participants.
The 2023 competition had a repeat winner (The University of British Columbia) and our second-place team (University of Edinburgh) had two of the top ten individual scores in the competition. In total, more than 200 predictions from 25 different countries (and 11 US states). Teams of at least 3 individuals from the same University or Research Institution are needed for a chance to win best team prediction. The first and second place teams of this competition earn our coveted golden and silver pinecones.
The 2024 event is special—in collaboration with the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), we will be predicting the burning behavior of two *very* large trees, each approximately 5.8 m tall. These experiments were safely conducted at the National Fire Research Laboratory at NIST to support ongoing wildfire research and continuing expansion of the design fires available in the NIST Fire Calorimetry Database. Full details of these experiments are provided in a NIST Technical Note, which will be released the day of the competition.
This year’s competition will take place on Thursday, December 19, 2024, at 12 p.m. (EST). All HRR predictions received prior to this date will be scored for the competition.
Here is the complete Invitation to Participate.
Competition Tree Information
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Species: Douglas-Fir (Tree 1 pictured to the right) |
||
|---|---|---|
| Tree 1 | Tree 2 | |
| Height | 5.79 m | 5.83 m |
| Width | 2.71 m | 3.05 m |
| Pre-Test Weight | 60.20 ± 0.32 kg | 56.00 ± 0.31 kg |
| Moisture Content | 11.0 ± 0.6% | 13.0 ± 0.7% |
| Uncertainty in listed heights and widths is estimated as ± 1.5 cm. | ||
Storage: Trees were kept, unwatered, for several weeks in laboratory storage. Tree moisture content (average from multiple locations, measured immediately prior to testing) is provided in the species information table above.
Ignition: A ring-shaped natural gas burner (approximately two-thirds the diameter of the outer tree branches, with multiple spark igniters; HRR = 165 kW ± 5 kW) was placed just below the lowest branches of each tree. Ignition (time, t = 0 s) is defined as the time at which burner flames are first ignited; burner flames were maintained for approximately 10 s before the natural gas supply was shut off.
Data: Christmas tree heat release rate will be measured at the National Fire Research Lab (NFRL) at the National Institute of Standards and technology. Details of the Calorimetry Measurement System used for these large fires (including relevant uncertainty information) are provided in NIST Technical Note 2077.
Calorimetry measurements in a rapidly growing fire are especially challenging. The NIST 20 MW calorimetry system has a system time response on the order of 10 s. Calorimetry HRR profiles are therefore corrected for time response by re-scaling the measured mass loss rate profiles while imposing the requirement that the measured total heat released matches the calorimetry value. Further details of this correction will be provided in a NIST Technical Note that will be released the day of the competition.
How to Participate: Generating and Submitting your Predictions
This year’s competition will take place on Thusrday, December 19, 2024, at 12 p.m. (EST). All HRR predictions received prior to this date will be scored for the competition.
This year, the submission (and generation of) predicted heat release rate (HRR) curves will once again be made possible by visiting the NIST Christmas Tree Heat Release Rate (HRR) page. We have updated this year’s curve generator to allow for larger fires and a new HRR vs. time profile. This custom-made app that allows participants to ‘build’ (and submit) a design fire curve by adjusting just three parameters that define:
- Peak Heat Release Rate (Peak HRR, kW)
- Relative Time to Peak HRR
- Total Heat Released (MJ)
In this app, after you click ‘Submit by Email’, an email will be generated that contains the three parameters defining your HRR curve. In this email, please remember to add your name, email and lab affiliation if you wish to receive credit (and final competition results) and CLICK SEND so that we receive your submission.
If you are having trouble automatically generating an email using the ‘Submit by Email’ button, please: (1) Click the ‘Copy Entry’ button to copy your submission entry text, (2) Paste that into the main text field of a new email, (3) Provide your contact information [do NOT edit parameter values], (4) Make the email subject “HRR Competition”, and (5) Send that email to treehrr@nist.gov.
A video guide to using this app to create HRR curves and submit predictions is available in YouTube.
The 2024 event will be livestreamed here: https://umd.zoom.us/j/7239055335
The Scoring System
This year’s experiments were repeated twice, and your predictions will be scored with respect to the average and uncertainty of repeated results; expanded measurement uncertainties are calculated as per the table below. Points (100 possible) will be awarded in 4 categories as listed below. Our scoring system will award up to 25 points for each category so long as the predicted values are within the calculated uncertainties.
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Description |
Uncertainty, Calculated as: |
|
Peak Heat Release Rate |
Root sum of squares including: (1) Measurement uncertainty (NIST Technical Note 2077) (2) Measurement range (upper/lower bounds) Additional uncertainty component for rescaling procedure |
|
Total Energy Release |
Root sum of squares including: |
|
Time to Peak HRR |
Measurement range (upper/lower bounds) |
| Duration for which HRR exceeds 20% of peak |
Measurement range (upper/lower bounds) |
Questions? Please contact the fire safety demo leader, Dr. Isaac Leventon (leventon@umd.edu).
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